CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-03-25T06:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-25T06:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19529/-1
CME Note: This CME is first visible to the East in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and to the SW in STEREO A COR2. As the CME propagates out of the field of view, the halo feature becomes more clear in both SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs. The source of this CME is the M1.4 class flare from AR12974 (~S19E36) that peaked at 2022-03-25T05:26Z (based off of GOES-17 data). The flare and the associated EUV wave (which, as seen in SDO/AIA 193/171 seems to be directed mostly towards the West) are clearly seen in SDO/AIA 193, 171, 211, and 94. The associated dimming is not pronounced. There is a data gap in STEREO A EUVI 195 during this event, but a change in the associated Active Region is visible after the data gap. UPDATE (2022-03-29T20:05Z) from Fernando: I do not see any signature of an ICME any of the days [2022-03-27 to 03-28]. There is a clear SIR crossing, though.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-27T16:52Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

NOTE: This simulation is based on the analysis of the shock of the CME best seen as an almost full halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Note that the bulk of the CME seems to have gone in a more Eastern direction, which corresponds to its source location AR12974 at (S19E36). This analysis of the shock is based on fitting the halo in LASCO with the super faint feature to the west in COR2A (one much fainter than the brighter following fronts possibly corresponding to the bulk of the CME) using SWPC CAT and does NOT take into consideration the source location of this CME which is further East. 

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/19537/1
Model Inputs:
2022-03-25T06:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-4.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=644.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2022-03-25T11:12Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-03-27T16:52Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =18.8 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.7
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=6

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-03-28T03:58Z
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-03-27T22:35Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220325_111200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220325_111200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220325_111200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220325_111200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220325_111200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220325_111200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220325_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220325_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220325_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220325_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220325_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220325_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220325_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220325_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220325_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220325_111200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 23.13 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2022-03-26T17:44Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy